Probability

People often treat probability like it's a fixed property of the world. You'll hear someone say there's a 20% chance of rain, as if that number is set in stone. But probability isn't a fact of nature! It's a tool we use to make sense of what we don't fully know, and built on what we assume and how willing we are to revise those assumptions as new information comes in.

Beyond Averages

In most situations, variance gets treated like noise or error, something to be minimized, yet in the real world, variance is often where the most interesting results happen. In school, we're taught to focus on the average. In practice, though, it's often the outliers that matter most.

Think about startups. Most experiments fail, but a few will hit and carry everything else. If you focus only on the average result, you're missing the fact that the big wins more than cover the small losses. The teams that really grow don't shy away from variance, they embrace it because they know that the upside lives there.

Learning from Outliers

The same is true for personal projects: if you're testing new outreach strategies, looking only at the average conversion rate might hide the fact that one message really connected in a way nothing else did. That's not noise, that's the beginning of a real insight. It's worth digging into!

The Power of Bayesian Thinking

This mindset is also why Bayesian thinking can be so powerful. If probability is just a measure of what you believe based on the data you have, it should evolve as you see more of the world. Most people treat probabilities as a final answer! In practice, every new result should either strengthen your view or force you to rethink it.

Keep in mind, the math behind probability only gets you so far. If you're framing the question the wrong way, your numbers won't help. I think the real skill is in seeing what you're assuming and being honest about whether those assumptions still make sense. That's what keeps you from getting stuck in a story that no longer matches reality.

Embracing Uncertainty

So whether you're building a business, taking a creative risk, or just trying to get a clearer view of the world, remember that probability is not set in stone - it's a moving target that sharpens as you learn. The people who really get this don't see variance as something to hide, they see it as the place where breakthroughs start. And they know that the best decisions come from staying curious and being ready to adjust as the picture changes.

Probability isn't about finding and finalizing a single answer, it's about developing the judgment to consistently ask the right questions.